The end-user Technology Market (USD 1,049 bn in 2015, a -5.8% decline on 2014) is expected to experience stable market development, growing every year at a compounded rate of 1.8% and expanding by USD +57.9 bn by 2018. Underlying drivers of this market development are the different subsector dynamics. The main contributions to the absolute growth in the end-user Technology Market will come from Consumer Electronics (USD +32.6 bn) and Networks (USD +23.4 bn), subsectors that will significantly benefit from smart devices and infrastructure investments for a more connected world.

Looking at personal devices, the previously leading Mobile Devices subsector will cool down (USD +9.9 bn) and just make up for the equally sized deterioration of the Ultramobiles and Notebooks market. In this landscape, a key regional market will be Asia Pacific (AP), achieving the largest 2015-18 increment of USD +18.6 bn. Asian countries will boast the most growth among BRICMI countries, with China growing USD +9.2 bn by 2018 and India USD +4.7 bn.

To build a robust strategy, it is important to recognize overall growth numbers per subsector and also the underlying dynamics of products and regions. In the Mobile Devices segment, smartphones in AP and MEA are key growth drivers (USD +16.3 bn), while other markets will fall behind 2015 levels. A major substitution effect will occur in the Ultramobiles/Notebooks segment with premium ultramobiles (i.e., very light notebooks) substituting traditional notebooks. Key logistic impacts from the Mobile Devices and Ultramobiles/Notebooks subsectors will be driven by the development of two main variables: units sold (growing for both sectors) and total device weight (declining -1.5% for Ultramobiles/Notebooks and growing +2.5% for Mobile Devices). In Consumer Electronics, home appliances (USD + 12 bn) will be a major contributor to growth, and wearables will be the fastest-growing segment. In the Networks subsector, a key highlight will be the expansion of the Communications Service Provider segment. This growth will be driven by the increasing adoption of 4G and LTE solutions and small cells networks. In Enterprise Computing, opposing trends will manifest in the Servers (USD +4.7 bn) and Storage segments (USD -1.3 bn). Here, datacenter consolidation and virtualization will be responsible for increased hardware efficiency supporting burgeoning data volumes. Substantial growth will also originate from the Semiconductor subsector, with expansion continuing in traditional data processing and communications, but an even stronger dynamic in industrial and automotive applications.

WHAT COMES NEXT

The DHL Technology Sector Market Intelligence team constantly follows the latest developments. DHL will soon be publishing other Market Data Books and Subsector Monitors.

To receive these publications along with similar updates in the future, join our LinkedIn group, follow the hashtag #DHLTechnology on Twitter, and write to us directly at info.technology@dhl.com

DHL TECHNOLOGY MARKET INTELLIGENCE

The DHL Technology Market Data Book is among the key reports regularly issued by DHL. The assessments and analyses performed and presented are mostly based on Gartner reports (Q4 2015). The interpretation and conclusions derived from this data result from DHL internal intelligence and target DHL’s business scope. For more information on DHL Technology Market Intelligence reports, please contact us at info.technology@dhl.com  

Published: April 2016

Images: Fotolia