The end-user Technology Market (USD 1,027bn in 2015, a -4.2% decline on 2014) will experience weak market development, growing every year at a compounded rate of 1.2% and expanding by USD +35.9bn by 2018. Underlying drivers of this market development are the different subsector dynamics. The main contributions to absolute growth in the end-user Technology Market will come from Consumer Electronics (USD +28.7bn) and Networks (+21.5bn).
The Personal Devices market (e.g., mobile phones, ultramobiles, PCs, etc.) will decline USD -14.3bn by 2018. The majority of this decline will be caused by the continuous deterioration of the Ultramobile & Notebooks market becoming even more pronounced (USD -11.7bn). Mobile Devices have reversed from a growth driver to a declining segment, with an expected CAGR of -0.3% and an absolute decline of USD -2.6bn until 2018. Increasing saturation of markets that used to be pockets of growth (such as China) and increasing competition from new Asian brands that target the low-end segment have proven to be crucial factors for this market. Furthermore, following the latest launches of new flagship products, it is increasingly evident that the level of new product innovation per dollar is perceived as insufficient to boost replacement sales.
The decline in Personal Devices is also influencing the overall growth prospect of various geographies. The Middle East & Africa (MEA) region will see the largest 2015-18 increment with USD +11.8bn and the highest CAGR (+7.9%), surpassing Asia Pacific. Compared to the forecast at the beginning of 2016, Asia Pacific’s growth contribution has significantly declined from USD +18.6bn to +7.2bn. India (+4.1bn) and Indonesia (+1.8bn) represent the largest growth opportunities, while China is considerably slowing down (+0.5bn). The other BRICMI countries (Brazil, Russia and Mexico, once characterized by boosting growth) will face substantial downgrades in expectations (combined USD -3.5bn).